Well, Obama lost momentum this summer right after democratic primary so didn't have the kind of convention bounce we could have expected. Part of that was his travels overseas, part of it was his flip-flopping over offshore drilling. Part of that is disappointment that he didn't pick Clinton as his VP. And part of that is that we still don't know what exactly he means by "change."
McCain had the expected post-convention bounce and he has invigorated the ultra-right wing on his behalf with Palin.
He won't pick up the Clinton supporters he hoped for, the pro-choice crowd, but he will pick up the pro-life women who would have voted for Clinton. I spoke with some strongly Republican women last year who were excited that we might have a woman president. Mostly what Palin has done is consolidate the states that voted for Bush behind McCain.
Palin comes at a high price, I think. She won a lot of sympathy over the plight of her teenage daughter - mom's who've gone through similar stuff and been blamed really felt for her. A lot of her positive vibe comes from that sympathy. But she's also nearly the end of her honeymoon phase in the national spotlight, as the questions over her international experience now indicate.
In October the results of the investigation of her firing the safety commissioner in Alaska when he refused to fire a state trooper will be completed. The Republicans have fought long and hard to have that investigation postponed until after the election, but Republicans in Alaska have said, "Let's get everything out on the table." She is not popular in her party for turning in a long-term Republican party wonk for corruption when they were all at the feeding trough -- and most don't think she did it out of nobility since she fed from that trough, too.
What's leaked out of that investigation is that she not only pushed to have the Alaska trooper fired, her husband also tried to get his workman's comp claim turned down.
It's vicious stuff. I don't know how the Republicans will be able to spin it without either suppressing it outright or lying and hoping no one will check. The Palin love I think will wane.
There's a huge mass of people who don't pay attention to politics until the last month before the elections. The independent voters are the ones who'll decide this election, and a lot of those are young evangelicals disenchanted with the Republican party because they're for the environment, for helping the poor, and only the thin line of being pro-life keeps them on board.
The cooling off in Iraq has made this a much closer race than it would have been.
There's no doubt in my mind: Obama will make a better president than McCain.
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branchandroot
no subject
Date: 2008-09-14 10:00 pm (UTC)McCain had the expected post-convention bounce and he has invigorated the ultra-right wing on his behalf with Palin.
He won't pick up the Clinton supporters he hoped for, the pro-choice crowd, but he will pick up the pro-life women who would have voted for Clinton. I spoke with some strongly Republican women last year who were excited that we might have a woman president. Mostly what Palin has done is consolidate the states that voted for Bush behind McCain.
Palin comes at a high price, I think. She won a lot of sympathy over the plight of her teenage daughter - mom's who've gone through similar stuff and been blamed really felt for her. A lot of her positive vibe comes from that sympathy. But she's also nearly the end of her honeymoon phase in the national spotlight, as the questions over her international experience now indicate.
In October the results of the investigation of her firing the safety commissioner in Alaska when he refused to fire a state trooper will be completed. The Republicans have fought long and hard to have that investigation postponed until after the election, but Republicans in Alaska have said, "Let's get everything out on the table." She is not popular in her party for turning in a long-term Republican party wonk for corruption when they were all at the feeding trough -- and most don't think she did it out of nobility since she fed from that trough, too.
What's leaked out of that investigation is that she not only pushed to have the Alaska trooper fired, her husband also tried to get his workman's comp claim turned down.
It's vicious stuff. I don't know how the Republicans will be able to spin it without either suppressing it outright or lying and hoping no one will check. The Palin love I think will wane.
There's a huge mass of people who don't pay attention to politics until the last month before the elections. The independent voters are the ones who'll decide this election, and a lot of those are young evangelicals disenchanted with the Republican party because they're for the environment, for helping the poor, and only the thin line of being pro-life keeps them on board.
The cooling off in Iraq has made this a much closer race than it would have been.
There's no doubt in my mind: Obama will make a better president than McCain.