icarus: Snape by mysterious artist (Shower Scene)
[personal profile] icarus
A friend of mine was bemoaning the fact that she had rather few reviews. We tossed around theories why that would be, because she is a wonderful writer.

Welllll. I haven't worked in corporate America for 15 years for nothing.

I did some research. Hard, cold numbers.

There were three factors I could measure on chaptered stories:

1 - Exposure rate, or how many people clicked on the story in the first place.

2 - Reader loyalty, or how many of those who clicked on the story in the first place came back for the later chapters.

3 - Review rate, or what percentage of those who read a particular chapter reviewed.

Results:

Review rates for books are a consistent 2-3%. Whether it's Cassandra Claire or Joe Blow. There is a considerable jump in review rates for humour (one-shot) stories (to 50% of the readers responding), but for chaptered stories it's consistant from one writer to the next.

Exposure rates vary, but are in the four figures for first books, and five figures for trilogies. The increase for trilogies is exponential. The more books you write, the more exposure you have. I checked this with really lousy (but prolific) writers, and acclaimed writers. It's consistent. The difference may be 10,000 (for an average writer) and 40,000 (for an acclaimed writer) initial 'clicks.' But the jump is still pronounced.

Reader loyalty is where you see the difference. It seems to be the only figure that sets one writer apart from another. One writer may have only 10% of the people who click on their story returning. Another will have 35%. The average is about 20% people coming back.

Once again, the trilogy rule holds true. As soon as there are two or three books, reader loyalty jumps exponentially. And here the quality of the writer seems to be irrelevant. Even a very average author with only 13% reader loyalty in their first book will see a jump to 42% if they produce three.

Cassandra Claire had a 17% reader loyalty for Draco Dormiens. Her reader loyalty for Draco Veritas is 45%.

Barb had a very high reader loyalty to start 35%, which jumped to 40% for her second book, and 46% for her third.

There you have it folks. I see now why Tor Books demands trilogies from fantasy writers.

Date: 2003-04-30 06:22 pm (UTC)
loup_noir: (Default)
From: [personal profile] loup_noir
Our mutual beta, CLS, sent me the write up. Fascinating. Does it take into account that the counter is only incremented for the chapter entered and all chapters linked to are not counted?

You should post this to FAP. I'm sure a lot of writers agonizing over their lack of reviews would be interested in your stats.

Statistically speaking...

Date: 2003-05-01 02:01 pm (UTC)
From: [identity profile] icarusancalion.livejournal.com
Sure. It's a very tough measure that only works for WIPs. Shows how many people are leaping onto each chapter as it is uploaded, the average number of people are clicking onto chapter, etc. Those are the Loyal Readers. Everyone else clicks into chapter one and reads from there.

I'm not in the FA Forum much, if at all. Where would I post this topic?

Oh, and by the way, I checked out your Livejournal *hands over handkerchief - you can keep that by the way* and your website. You have one of the best summaries I've ever seen: 'Revenge is an expensive luxury. Make certain to hire a professional for best results.' Wonderful.

Do you mind terribly if I 'friend' you?

I'll have your stats in a moment. The phones are down at the office, so I have a spare moment.

~ Icarus

No Minstry statistics

Date: 2003-05-01 02:17 pm (UTC)
From: [identity profile] icarusancalion.livejournal.com
Well, I couldn't find your stories on Schnoogle. Are they not there?

~Icarus

Re: No Minstry statistics

Date: 2003-05-01 03:15 pm (UTC)
loup_noir: (Default)
From: [personal profile] loup_noir
Currently, all of my works are housed only at my gray site. It's a long story. They were all housed on TDA until last October when I pulled them. CLS is trying to talk me into putting them back up and I must admit that I need the occasional ego stroke to tell me that I don't suck as badly as I think I do.

Re: No Minstry statistics

Date: 2003-05-01 03:51 pm (UTC)
From: [identity profile] icarusancalion.livejournal.com
??!

MartianHouseCat is doing the same thing with 'Arithmancy & Flowers' and it mystifies me still. Even published authors, even great ones, have things about their stories they don't like. Shakespeare dismissed all of his plays as dreck -- his Sonnets were all he cared for... But that's just how it is as a writer. You are never happy with your own work, you will never be happy with it. It's very, very rare to be satisfied.

People like stories of mine that I don't think much of.

I wrote a flip 3-pager that is cute, but nothing special. It's the favourite story of one person who runs a website.: "yeah, I like this much better than 'Primer to the Dark Arts'...

I wrote another story as pure sleaze, I don't feel it's all that great, I was just trying to pull off a three-way with Harry/Severus/Ron. I used a cheap plot device to make it (barely) probable. Just heard from a reader that they've read it over and over again.

There's another story that a Beta of mine ripped to shreds, and I could see that part II doesn't really have much of a plot -- I just liked the collection of one-liners. Heard from two people who have it in their 'cream of the crop' list, and it's been recommended all over the place.

Go figure.

So you just don't know what people will enjoy. As a writer you are too close to your own work to really see it well.

I'll read your Durstrang stories and tell you honestly what I think, but, unless they really aren't very good, pulling your stories is counter to the whole spirit of writing.

*mumbles and shakes head*

~Icarus

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