Three Rules for an Airtight Conspiracy Theory, or: How To Tell A Bullshit Conspiracy Theory

[icarus]

The boyfriend has a coworker who is absolutely certain that the Bush adminstration destroyed the Twin Towers on 9/11 as an excuse to go into Iraq. I keep explaining to wildernessguru why this is idiotic. The trouble with specific conspiracy theories is that people (who hate and distrust Bush, for example) want to believe them so badly, logic starts to fray in the face of their fervor.

I'm not against all conspiracy theories. I believe that JFK was assassinated by more than one shooter. But the JFK assassination theory passes my Three Rules.

Wait. You haven't heard of my Three Rules?

Three Rules for an Airtight Conspiracy Theory, or: How To Tell A Bullshit Conspiracy Theory From One That Makes Sense

Rule One: No cherry-picking the facts.

The conspiracy theory has to take into account all the facts available, even if the theory argues with them. If any inconvenient facts are dismissed out of hand ("oh, of course the government says that"), you have a crackpot theory – do not pass go, do not collect $200. The strength of a good conspiracy theory is in the additional information not covered by the mainstream media not in ignoring well-established facts.

Rule Two: No one is a super-genius (except in James Bond).

The conspiracy theory can't presume the culprit becomes suddenly brilliant and competent when they've proved to be a bumbling idiot in the past and since. The bad guy (or guys) has to be capable of pulling it off. A good conspiracy theory doesn't expect the culprit(s) to act out of character or be any smarter than they are on an average day.

An off-shoot of this is the cast of thousands all acting like super-geniuses rule. The more people that are involved in a conspiracy, the more likely the secret will get out, and the more likely the conspiracy will make mistakes. Ask any general. The bigger the operation, the more problems multiply.

Rule Three: No one has a crystal ball.

The conspiracy theory can't assume that the bad guys can read the future. If the bad guy's motive depends upon a complicated chain of events – "See, first they did X, then Y happened, and then Z, and then N, then after that there was W and then, voila! They got what they wanted" – the theory is a house of cards. Vast numbers of conspiracy theories fail because they project what we know in the present ("this is what happened") onto the past ("so they must have known this would happen"). A good conspiracy theory assumes a measurable and predictable result which could have been known at the time.

This is not to say that all conspiracy theories are wrong. Sometimes, they are out to get you. ;) But let's shoot down the stupid conspiracy theories, shall we?

Comments

[magic-8ball.livejournal.com]

Oh, of course you'd say that. :)

Seriously, though, I think a lot of conspiracy theories are inevitable due to the human brain's tendency to search for patterns in chaos, finding them even when they aren't there. And as for 9/11, there's actually a bit of a comfort in convincing yourself that the administration had something to do with it. I mean, here are the two choices:

1. A bunch of corrupt guys got together and decided that they could maneuver the country into an extremely profitable war simply by killing a few thousand Americans and clearing several acres of prime real estate that would only come out improved in the long run.

2. A small group of foreigners were inspired to hate us so much that they were willing to hijack planes and kill everyone aboard -- including themselves -- just to have a chance at blowing up a few high-profile buildings and killing a few thousand Americans.

Okay -- greedy politicians, or guys who hate us so much (and aren't alone in doing so) that they're willing to blow themselves us in the hopes of taking some of us with them. If you want to make yourself feel as safe as possible, Option #1 is certainly the way to go.

But I digress. Your rules? Pretty much spot-on.

[icarusancalion.livejournal.com]

Plus there's something we can do about Bush. He will be gone in 251 days. The hatred of those in the middle east? We're helpless to fix that--and we know it's got to be worse by now.

[auburnnothenna.livejournal.com]

Sigh. Bush won't be gone in 251 days. Not really. All the damage will still be there.

Your rules rule. Especially number one.

You don't have to be a conspiracy theorist to believe that the Bush/Cheney types (I almost called them the Consortium, but I really don't want to go down the X-Files path) took full advantage of 9/11, though.

Wish I had my cynic's icon on LJ.

[icarusancalion.livejournal.com]

It will take a generation at least to clean up his mess. But... I'd like an ejector seat for the day he leaves office. Think we can clear back wall?

[auburnnothenna.livejournal.com]

I'd settle for security escorting his person off the premises.

[icarusancalion.livejournal.com]

With a kick me sign on his ass.