Proposition 8. The curtain has risen but the conductor's baton hasn't moved yet.

[icarus]

A few people have posted that Proposition 8 has passed (which is bad, bad, bad).

No.

That's not what's in the news. The news says it has a "comfortable margin." Mmm... sort of. It would be comfortable if the conservative/liberal votes were evenly distributed across the state.

It's only ahead by 300,000 votes, 53% 51.9% for banning gay marriage, 47% 48.1% against the ban.

However, the conservative inland counties have reported 100% of their votes. They're done. It's those votes that have it passing at this point. Meanwhile, less than half of LA's massive far-more-liberal precincts have been counted. The Bay area counties have only reported roughly a third of their precincts.

The fat lady hasn't sung on this one, folks.

Comments

[kijikun.livejournal.com]

This.

[icarusancalion.livejournal.com]

Yup. It's scary, but I'm going to wait for LA and the Bay area to be counted first.

[kijikun.livejournal.com]

It's driving me nuts. I can't sleep.

[kyuuketsukirui.livejournal.com]

I'm still hoping! The percentage has been crawling down, then it'll go up a point again, then back down. But the map I'm looking at says only 65.8% reporting, with LA only 50%. It's definitely not over yet.

[icarusancalion.livejournal.com]

Some of the Bay area counties only have 24% reporting so far. We shall see. Governor Gregoire was losing here in Washington, and then King county (i.e. the ever-dominant Seattle) reported in. Whoosh. We get to keep our Democratic governor.

[kyuuketsukirui.livejournal.com]

Yeah, I saw there are at least two Bay Area counties that are real low. And just since I posted, the gap in LA has closed considerably. *crosses fingers*

[icarusancalion.livejournal.com]

That MSNBC map isn't changing at all for me. I am able to follow the changes here (http://www.sfgate.com/election/races/2008/11/04/CA/c/i_proposition/i_1_8_same_sex_marriage_ban/g_ballot_issue/c/california.shtml), but do you have a better place to check the ongoing tallies?

[kyuuketsukirui.livejournal.com]

I have been watching the LA Times site (http://www.latimes.com/news/local/politics/cal/la-2008election-california-results,0,1293859.htmlstory), but also just discovered the LA County site (http://rrccmain.co.la.ca.us/0018_StateMeasure_Frame.htm), which is more up-to-date (although obviously limited to LA only).

The gap in LA is teensy now! 50.79% yes to 49.21% no, with 83% reporting.

[icarusancalion.livejournal.com]

Wow, that's infinitesimal. And thank, those sites are very, very helpful.

And hopeful.

[tty63.livejournal.com]

CNN's doing a decent job here (http://edition.cnn.com/ELECTION/2008/results/individual/#CAI01).

[icarusancalion.livejournal.com]

Ah, cool. Their results load quickly, too. Thank you.

[fragilistikal.livejournal.com]

LA's problem is the black and latino communities which are not so liberal as the west side....actually pretty conservative when it comes to things like gay marriage.

[icarusancalion.livejournal.com]

We shall see.

Orange county - 33% reporting in
San Diego - 36% reporting in
Los Angeles - 44% reporting in
Ventura - 52% reporting in
Monteray - 34% reporting in
San Benito - 42% reporting in
Santa Clara - 38% reporting in
Santa Cruz - only 5% reporting in
Alameda - 34% reporting in
Contra Costa - 20% reporting in
Napa - 27% reporting in
Sonoma - 69% reporting in
Yolo - 11% reporting in
Humboldt - 69% reporting in

Counties that went for McCain:

Modoc - 100% reporting in
Siskiyou - 100% reporting in
Lassen - 93% reporting in
Plumas - 100% reporting in
Butte - 72% reporting in
Glenn - 77% reporting in
Colusa - 100% reporting in...

You get the idea. It's more than just LA that's yet to be counted.

[pastles.livejournal.com]

That's what I'm telling myself too, everytime I see the percentages inch up and down D:

[nicocoer.livejournal.com]

That's what I was hoping to hear. <3

Now I have a reason to stay up.

[kijikun.livejournal.com]

yes-52 no- 48 with 79% reporting. I think its pretty much over now. It'll take a miracle to flip it.

We can only hope for a recount or prop 8 or Florida's gay marriage ban being taken to the supreme court.

[icarusancalion.livejournal.com]

It's still changing. It's now:

Yes 4,477,731 51.8%
No 4,163,803 48.2%

I don't know. It's not 79% of the population that's been counted, but 79% of the precincts that've been counted. It depends on the population in those remaining precincts.

Doesn't look good, but that margin is slim enough to erode. I'll wait.

[icarusancalion.livejournal.com]

Yes - 51.7%
No - 48.3%

[icarusancalion.livejournal.com]

Looks like we're waiting on Santa Clara. Only 64% of Santa Clara has been counted.

I'm estimating 145,000 left to count in Santa Clara (assuming, probably wrongly, that the remaining districts have an similar population to what's already been counted).

If the Santa Clara percentages stay roughly the same, the remaining votes would be:

Yes - 64,525 = 4,676,728 = 51.7%
No - 80,723 = 4,377,020 = 48.3%

Unless those districts are much larger than I think....

[september1967.livejournal.com]

http://www.cnn.com/ELECTION/2008/results/ballot.measures/

CNN has said elsewhere that according to exit polls, it will be narrowly defeated.

[icarusancalion.livejournal.com]

Exit polls tend to lean Democratic, according to fivethirtyeight.com. 95% of the precincts have reported and Proposition 8 looks like it has passed, 52% to 48%.

[september1967.livejournal.com]

CNN said its not been decided, too close to call and is waiting for absentee ballots.

[icarusancalion.livejournal.com]

Ahhhh... good!

I will wait.

[whatifisaidno.livejournal.com]

Oh dear god.

[moojja.livejournal.com]

It looks like it is too late. I'm so sad, I thought for sure it would pass. The thing that really piss me off, is the amount of out-of-state money that basically came into CA and bought this vote.

[moojja.livejournal.com]

Just reread my comment. When I said I thought for sure it would pass I meant gay marriage would stay on the books. Not that prop 8 would pass.

[jimpage363.livejournal.com]

Thanks for the smidgen of hope. What it really means is that approx. 50% of my fellow Californians are idiots who don't get that you can't actually have a referendum on someone else's civil liberties.

[squishtoy.livejournal.com]

Oh my god. This, coupled with what I felt about the election, is killing me. My friends are all calling Prop 8 passed, and it's breaking my heart.

[mellifluous-ink.livejournal.com]

Do we know, yet? Shouldn't we know by now?

[icarusancalion.livejournal.com]

As of late last night, the ban passed, 52% to 48%.

[mellifluous-ink.livejournal.com]

(deep breath)

We can fix it. It's okay. We can fix it.

[teenygozer.livejournal.com]

This is so nuts. What does this mean for all those people who actually got married? Are they suddenly NOT married? Are there people looking around, going, "We went to bed married and woke up unmarried" today? It's bizarre! How do we fix this?

[icarusancalion.livejournal.com]

Apparently gay couples who married before Proposition 8 will remain married.

[bruinsfan.livejournal.com]

Some people are reporting that it will be subject to legal challenge of its constitutionality - that revoking civil rights from a select group in this manner would require a revision of the California state constitution (which needs a 2/3 majority in the legislature and popular vote or a 2/3 majority in a constitutional convention) rather than an amendment with a simple majority.

[icarusancalion.livejournal.com]

Yes, it's a dangerous idea that we can determine the civil rights of a group of people based on a popular vote.

[amalthia]

I really hate that this even came up to vote. I mean aren't we supposed to have minority protections against this sort of thing from happening? I don't recall reading anywhere when blacks and whites were allowed to finally marry that the decision ended up getting voted on over and over again?

Plus revoking liberties is never a good thing. :(