Watch Iraq.

[icarus]

Remember what I said about the troop surge in Iraq? That I hoped I was wrong, but suspected the real reason for calming of tensions in Iraq had more to do with Al-Maliki than the surge?

Most of those found executed all over Baghdad last winter were killed in purges by Al-Maliki and his buddies. That sort of thing sparks resistance and violence.

Officially, Al-Maliki wants the US out of there. Unofficially, Al-Maliki and his cronies have been skimming US aid to Iraq. They have every reason to want the money to keep flowing. The U.S. resisting a timeline for withdrawal would have been better for him.

Watch the Iraq news. If we start to see an immediate resurgence of violence then the success of the troop surge was an illusion.

Comments

[monkeypumpkin.livejournal.com]

In my opinion, the violence slowed down because the major ethnic cleansing was over. The violence was a spasm, as the country segregated itself. The dividing is done now, and the violence is less. Sad and ugly.

[icarusancalion.livejournal.com]

I dub this the "we ran out of bodies" view, and it sounds plausible.