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icarusThe Olympics are coming! The Olympics are coming!
If you're like me (in years past) you probably tune in to these winter sports, oh, once every four years. You get a general sense of who the favorites are from the announcers and interviews, roll your eyes at the inspirational life story clips, and root for the home team.
Now you don't have to be in the dark. You can be knowledgeable long before the Olympics hit.
At least about figure skating. (Everyone, feel free to correct me. I'm not an expert, I've just been following skating to the best of my ability for a couple years.)
Right now the horse race is on. It's the Grand Prix. As we speak, world class skaters are competing in a series of competitions Russia, France, Canada, the U.S., Japan, and er, I think elsewhere. Right now they're trying to earn points to get to the Grand Prix final -- and prove themselves worthy of the Olympic teams.
You see, last March at the World Championships each country won the number of slots they'd have at the Olympics based on how their skaters did. (The max is three.) China was very disappointed to not win any for men's figure skating. In a real shocker, the U.S. women's figure skating only scored two slots as our current National champ fell apart.
But our men are doing fab. Evan Lysacek won the gold at Worlds and we have a "deep field," namely, many guys running neck and neck for the same titles.
Let's have a look at our boys.
The Americans.
The ever-hot gentleman, Evan Lysacek. (The belt buckle is Batman, with cable and bat-grappling hook.)
Evan has the quad. He has the fire. He's a skater who starts pouring it out in the last 30 seconds of his performance, ramping it up and dragging the audience with him till they're standing in their seats. He's also sitting on a nice fluffy seat of awards and medals -- including World Champion last year (woo!). But. Everyone notes that the sitting World Champion hasn't won gold at the Olympics since the mesozoic era. The judges don't want to give all the laurels to just one guy. But prior to Plushenko's return, he was one of the favorites for the gold. Now, with Plushenko back, he has to pull that quad out of his back pocket to win.
The perky and what-a-fine-ass Jeremy Abbot.
Abbott is the current U.S. National champion and beat Lysacek all season long last year ... until he peaked too early, right before Worlds. He limped away from Worlds openly wondering what happened. He's a charmer with a goofy cartoon grin who wears his heart on his sleeve. And it's obvious that he's wound very tight this year, worried that he won't get last year's momentum back. That's hurting his performance. Last spring, I would said he was a shoe-in for the Olympic team. Now, I'm not so sure. He's a graceful, smooth skater who doesn't do the quad. Instead, he makes everything hard in his program, filling his bucket with points here and there and everywhere, until he wins.
Mr. Entertainment, Ryan Bradley.
Whenever Ryan steps onto the ice, I grin. He's a flirt. He's unpredictable -- in every sense of the word. You never know how he'll do on the jumps. His are too open and you find yourself holding your breath on every. single. time. But I hope he makes it, just because he's pure fun. I've seen him get distracted, entertaining the crowd to the point where he forgets he's competing! And his program this year is a spoofy, goofy stitch.
The flamboyantly gay Johnny Weir.
Johnny has been struggling since he lost the National title to Evan Lysacek in 2007. He's an elegant skater. He's a joy to watch. He paints the music on the ice. But being so flamingly gay pitted him against the image-makers in U.S. figure skating despite his talent. That battle took a toll. In turning down the heat on his effeminate style he started to struggle with his presentation. Then trying to fix his presentation, he started to lose it on the jumps. He's been very uneven this season. Now it's unlikely he'll make the Olympic team. But he has made the Grand Prix final, surprising everyone.
And then there are the long shots and newbies:
Ya gotta love an opera fan, Adam Rippon.
He's smooth. He's calm. He's got the moves. But he just moved up from Juniors and needs a little more time to simmer. But. Bear in mind that currently he's ranked 9th in the world.
The long-shot comeback Stephen Carriere.
Carriere has a jumping technique out of the old school. He has fast, fast spins. He took the silver at Nationals in 2008. But he's developed vertigo and has never developed the consistency you need to break out of the national level onto the world stage.
The whoa-where-did-this-kid-come-from, awkwardly lovable Brandom Mroz.
Mom said he looks like a penguin. He's still in high school. But in January 2009, his first year on the senior level, he grabbed the silver medal at Nationals, beating Evan Lysacek and Johnny Weir. The announcers said of him, "Gee, they forgot to tell him this is hard." The oh, holy shit look on his face was priceless. Now his overall skating is developing fast, at the expense of his jumps sometimes, but he's also being bold and throwing down the gauntlet with his quad.
The name no pronounces the same way twice, Armin MAHBANOOZADEH.
Finally, there's Mabanoozerabadahblbrghf. Graceful, fluid, fun to watch. I don't know if he'll keep moving up, he's still inconsistent. But he has a musical sense that makes him figure skating eye candy.
Only three will make it to the Olympics.
Which three? We'll know at Nationals in Spokane, January 2010.
Tomorrow: those other guys, yeah, them foreigners.
If you're like me (in years past) you probably tune in to these winter sports, oh, once every four years. You get a general sense of who the favorites are from the announcers and interviews, roll your eyes at the inspirational life story clips, and root for the home team.
Now you don't have to be in the dark. You can be knowledgeable long before the Olympics hit.
At least about figure skating. (Everyone, feel free to correct me. I'm not an expert, I've just been following skating to the best of my ability for a couple years.)
Right now the horse race is on. It's the Grand Prix. As we speak, world class skaters are competing in a series of competitions Russia, France, Canada, the U.S., Japan, and er, I think elsewhere. Right now they're trying to earn points to get to the Grand Prix final -- and prove themselves worthy of the Olympic teams.
You see, last March at the World Championships each country won the number of slots they'd have at the Olympics based on how their skaters did. (The max is three.) China was very disappointed to not win any for men's figure skating. In a real shocker, the U.S. women's figure skating only scored two slots as our current National champ fell apart.
But our men are doing fab. Evan Lysacek won the gold at Worlds and we have a "deep field," namely, many guys running neck and neck for the same titles.
Let's have a look at our boys.
The Americans.
The ever-hot gentleman, Evan Lysacek. (The belt buckle is Batman, with cable and bat-grappling hook.)
Evan has the quad. He has the fire. He's a skater who starts pouring it out in the last 30 seconds of his performance, ramping it up and dragging the audience with him till they're standing in their seats. He's also sitting on a nice fluffy seat of awards and medals -- including World Champion last year (woo!). But. Everyone notes that the sitting World Champion hasn't won gold at the Olympics since the mesozoic era. The judges don't want to give all the laurels to just one guy. But prior to Plushenko's return, he was one of the favorites for the gold. Now, with Plushenko back, he has to pull that quad out of his back pocket to win.
The perky and what-a-fine-ass Jeremy Abbot.
Abbott is the current U.S. National champion and beat Lysacek all season long last year ... until he peaked too early, right before Worlds. He limped away from Worlds openly wondering what happened. He's a charmer with a goofy cartoon grin who wears his heart on his sleeve. And it's obvious that he's wound very tight this year, worried that he won't get last year's momentum back. That's hurting his performance. Last spring, I would said he was a shoe-in for the Olympic team. Now, I'm not so sure. He's a graceful, smooth skater who doesn't do the quad. Instead, he makes everything hard in his program, filling his bucket with points here and there and everywhere, until he wins.
Mr. Entertainment, Ryan Bradley.
Whenever Ryan steps onto the ice, I grin. He's a flirt. He's unpredictable -- in every sense of the word. You never know how he'll do on the jumps. His are too open and you find yourself holding your breath on every. single. time. But I hope he makes it, just because he's pure fun. I've seen him get distracted, entertaining the crowd to the point where he forgets he's competing! And his program this year is a spoofy, goofy stitch.
The flamboyantly gay Johnny Weir.
Johnny has been struggling since he lost the National title to Evan Lysacek in 2007. He's an elegant skater. He's a joy to watch. He paints the music on the ice. But being so flamingly gay pitted him against the image-makers in U.S. figure skating despite his talent. That battle took a toll. In turning down the heat on his effeminate style he started to struggle with his presentation. Then trying to fix his presentation, he started to lose it on the jumps. He's been very uneven this season. Now it's unlikely he'll make the Olympic team. But he has made the Grand Prix final, surprising everyone.
And then there are the long shots and newbies:
Ya gotta love an opera fan, Adam Rippon.
He's smooth. He's calm. He's got the moves. But he just moved up from Juniors and needs a little more time to simmer. But. Bear in mind that currently he's ranked 9th in the world.
The long-shot comeback Stephen Carriere.
Carriere has a jumping technique out of the old school. He has fast, fast spins. He took the silver at Nationals in 2008. But he's developed vertigo and has never developed the consistency you need to break out of the national level onto the world stage.
The whoa-where-did-this-kid-come-from, awkwardly lovable Brandom Mroz.
Mom said he looks like a penguin. He's still in high school. But in January 2009, his first year on the senior level, he grabbed the silver medal at Nationals, beating Evan Lysacek and Johnny Weir. The announcers said of him, "Gee, they forgot to tell him this is hard." The oh, holy shit look on his face was priceless. Now his overall skating is developing fast, at the expense of his jumps sometimes, but he's also being bold and throwing down the gauntlet with his quad.
The name no pronounces the same way twice, Armin MAHBANOOZADEH.
Finally, there's Mabanoozerabadahblbrghf. Graceful, fluid, fun to watch. I don't know if he'll keep moving up, he's still inconsistent. But he has a musical sense that makes him figure skating eye candy.
Only three will make it to the Olympics.
Which three? We'll know at Nationals in Spokane, January 2010.
Tomorrow: those other guys, yeah, them foreigners.
no subject
Date: 2009-11-23 01:54 am (UTC)China was very disappointed to not win any for men's figure skating.
LOL, Wu. And then they sent him to Nebelhorn! Okay, I guess their New Great Hope, Han Yan, was too young? (I think? I should check his birthdate or something), but there is also Chao Yang and Song Nan, who are excellent. I don't know why they sent Wu, I really don't. He was 4th at 2010 Chinese nationals and that was after bombing Worlds. This isn't a Li Chengjiang situation, it's not like they don't have other skaters to send.
In a real shocker, the U.S. women's figure skating only scored two slots as our current National champ fell apart.
Not that surprising, actually. It would have taken a miracle for the US to qualify 3 ladies in that field, which, despite all the ladiezzzz splatfest, was pretty deep qualification-wise (who thought Kostner would bomb like that?). And Czisny is not the paragon of consistency. (I refuse to believe she's the national champion. I love Czisny's spins, but Flatt was robbed. What will it take for Flatt to get some R-E-S-P-E-C-T?)
Evan has the quad.
Oh, I wish he did. But he doesn't. He has the quad in the "I can try the quad and maybe I'll land it, but in exchange, I will screw up my other elements, and then lose, so it's really not worth it." He does better programs, imho, when he doesn't even bother. There aren't many skaters who can do quads+good program, instead of good-program-without-quad or crap-program-but-did-a-quad.
Abbott is the current U.S. National champion and beat Lysacek all season long last year ... until he peaked too early, right before Worlds.
*puts tongue firmly in cheek about Abbott's total lack of consistency*
In turning down the heat on his effeminate style he started to struggle with his presentation. Then trying to fix his presentation, he started to lose it on the jumps.
Eh, not really. I mean, sure, the USFSA makes a nice target, but it's hard to blame Johnny's decline on anyone but him. He has not made any kind of progress since 2007. He won medals this GP, shockingly, but it's not in any way convincing that he can keep this up. His presentation is crap, his programs are totally empty in a way that makes you long for the good old days of two-transitions-in-a-programs under 6.0. His choreography consists mostly of waving his hands around and maybe changing directions, his jumps are shoddy, and he's really not the Weir of The Swan anymore. His programs are all repeats of each other, and it's like he's putting on stranger and stranger costumes to distract the judges from the fact that his programs are emptier than Plushenko's.
And meanwhile, Johnny did that reality series and a bunch of other stuff and seems to be trying to package himself as a cross-over break-out star, but all that depends on him being a great, charismatic skater, and he just isn't that anymore.
I thought when he switched to Galina Z that he would turn around and do better, but he's really not. He's just getting worse. If he makes the Olympic team, I would be surprised, and that's not politicking speaking, that's the fact that he just isn't as good as he used to be.
But he just moved up from Juniors and needs a little more time to simmer.
And in more pleasant talkings, ADAM FUCKING RIPPON. Thank god they got him away from Morozov. I'm still unimpressed that they sent him back to JW last year *sigh*, but at least they got him away from Morozov. Orser is doing wonders for him.
The long-shot comeback Stephen Carriere.
It's terrible, because I might be his only fan, but I'm pretty much given up on Carriere. :( I hope he can turn it around at nationals and pwn the world and show everyone that he still has that promise he had when he won JW.
The whoa-where-did-this-kid-come-from, awkwardly lovable Brandom Mroz.
THE JGP. And I called it, I called it so much. :D :D :D I was shocked to see that he was still doing juniors nationally in '08, because he would have been competitive in the senior pack. He is awesome and I love him and he is so very underrated. :D We need to send him to either Peter Grutter or Frank Carroll, because he is Stephane Lambiel with jumps, or Evan Lysacek with...jumps. Okay, he has jumps. But he is awesome and I hope he makes the Olympic team, because he would be so awesome there.
Other skaters:
Have you ever seen Parker Pennington? I fucking love him. If he could hold it together (long shot, I know), maybe...just maybe... *prays* Or at the least, send him to 4CC. Because he is awesome.
And Keegan Messing! If there is a huge splatfest of doom, Little Keegan could totally Mroz-it. He has everything but the experience. (The JGP skaters are all neck-in-neck; we'll know more after the JGPF. But I'd give Messing a better chance of making the Olympics than Miner or Dornbush or Hochstein, even though they qualified for the JGPF and he didn't. Sure, it's a small chance, but...I'd still give it to Keegan over Miner.)
(Oh, and there's Wesley Campbell, who looked promising when he placed 7th at 08 nats, and then didn't get out of the MIDS FIELD OF DOOOOOM in 09).
(Eliot Halverson didn't get out of Mids this weekend. :( :( :( But Jon Cassar did, so there will be awesome spreadeagles, at least, at nationals.)
So I stop editing that previous comment
Date: 2009-11-23 02:46 am (UTC)And Abbott, god help us, Abbott. He has everything, but he's Czisny, pretty much. This is the guy who didn't win juniors until he was 19. This is the guy who didn't make it out of Mids in his first senior season (okay, just about every Mids skater has, at one point, not made it out of Mids so I can't throw stones at him for that). And then the next year, blam, he shows up at Nationals, he gets the pewter, he goes to 4CC after Weir drops out, he wins the bronze, he earns his goddamn way onto the goddamn GP, amazing. But how many times does he do two good programs back to back? How many times does he do two good competitions back to back? He won the GPF after not medalling at his second event last year!
God help us for Abbott. He and Evan are almost exactly the same age. But Evan, at least, you know what you're getting. Evan doesn't really win stuff, but he podiums. He's consistent. You know what you're getting with Evan. In a world of Weir and Abbott, I will totally always choose Evan, because Evan doesn't break my heart anymore.
Back when Evan would always fuck up the short program, yeah, that was a different story. But I think Evan's evened that out now.
If the Olympic team is Abbott, Lysacek, and Weir, well, I don't think anyone will boo-hoo that one. But, how do I say this kindly? That would be bad for US skating. Because they're all going to retire after this year (if they don't, I'll be shocked. Okay, maybe Abbott will stick around. Maybe.) It would be great if they could send someone who'll take that experience and run with it into the next quad, the way Lysacek did in 2006.
So there's this young group, all of them in a pack together, with Mroz and Rippon vying for top dog there; Mroz making Worlds last year and Rippon medaling on the GP this year. If the 3rd Olympic spot is in the air, toss a coin, either Rippon or Mroz will get it, that's the smart money.
There's Ross Miner, who went from novice silver to junior gold and now he's a first year senior. Maybe he'll make a move next year, maybe not. There's Armin M, who has had 2 bad nationals in a row after medalling at the JGPF. I don't know how he deals with pressure, but his nationals record isn't very good after his win at novice in 07.
There's Ryan Bradley and Stephen Carriere, who have both been to Worlds. Bradley is all show and no substance (and I say that as a fan), Carriere isn't wowwing anyone these days.
If anyone's a lock, it's Lysacek, he of the World Title. And then it's Abbott, because I went and looked and no reigning men's national champion has ever missed the following year's Olympic team except for one, and that was because he didn't try for it. Abbott has the GPF title, he's the national champion, and so what that he placed 11th both times he's gone to Worlds? He's done pretty well this season. His programs have difficulty, at least he tries for stuff, and has choreography.
And then there's Weir and Mroz and Rippon and The Pack. And if I had to bet, I wouldn't put any money on Weir putting it together for nationals. I really wouldn't. I'd put it on Mroz, with a side-bet on Rippon.
And maybe Weir will show up at nationals and win. Who knows. But, the way it looks right now, he may be the 3rd ranked US skater on the GP, but that won't mean much when it comes to the free skate at nationals, because he's a short program skater and free skates are not his friend. What Weir does have going for him is experience: he and Lysacek at the only Olympic veterans. If everyone crashes and burns under pressure, Weir could rise. But I do think it would take other people's mistakes for put Weir on that team.
Re: So I stop editing that previous comment
Date: 2009-11-23 09:51 pm (UTC)I think Abbott will do better with that coach of his, she's soooo calming.
no subject
Date: 2009-11-23 09:55 pm (UTC)I love Parker Pennington. Wait. I mixed him and Carriere up, didn't I? It's Pennington who has vertigo, not Carriere.
Sorry, it's hard to make Carriere interesting to me. Parker, on the other, gets geek points all the way.
it's hard to blame Johnny's decline on anyone but him. He has not made any kind of progress since 2007.
He hasn't. I'm reaching for explanations, really.
And Czisny is not the paragon of consistency.
Oh, ha, that's putting it mildly. My money's on Flatt for sure.
Re: So I stop editing that previous comment
Date: 2009-11-23 09:58 pm (UTC)Yeah, but it's the jumps that worry me about him. He just doesn't stack up against Mroz, jumpwise. But Rippon does have the whole package-sans-jumps. But if he misses a big jump, that could hurt him. Mroz can build up points on jumps, but, yeah, Rippon is definitely having a better season so far, and he's been un-Morozovified, so his programs are actually watchable now.
I agree that Lysacek, Abbott, and Rippon would be a great Olympic team. :)
no subject
Date: 2009-11-23 09:59 pm (UTC)Those spreadeagles are unreal.
no subject
Date: 2009-11-23 10:05 pm (UTC)I think Pennington has vertigo, yeah. Not sure if Carriere does, too. There was a 90's skater, Scott Davis?, who had it, too, I think.
My money's on Flatt for sure.
I worry that Flatt will have her first major meltdown of her career at Nationals and miss the Olympic team. She's the only hope of a top-6 finish, imho. (I'm hoping the Olympic team ends up Flatt and Nagasu/Wagner. I can see the appeal of both Nagasu and Wagner and I love them both. But if Flatt misses the team, there's gonna be trouble in River City.)
no subject
Date: 2009-11-23 10:06 pm (UTC)